- $85.78 billion in September, in line with expectations.
- Exports increase 2.9%, up for the third straight month.
- Imports rebound 2.4%, up for the second time in three months.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Oct 26 2023U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in September
- LEI shows consecutive m/m decreases since April 2022.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the fifth time in six months.
- Lagging Economic Index up for the second successive month.
USA| Oct 17 2023U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Increases in September
- IP +0.3% (+0.1% y/y) in Sept.; Aug. revised down but July revised up.
- Mfg. IP recovers 0.4%, w/ durable goods up 0.4% and nondurable goods up 0.3%; motor vehicles production rises 0.3% vs. a 4.1% Aug. drop.
- Mining activity gains for the fourth straight month, but utilities output declines after two successive m/m rises.
- Key categories in market groups up except business equipment output.
- Capacity utilization increases to a five-month-high 79.7%.
USA| Oct 10 2023U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Falls to a Four-Month Low in September Amid Inflation Concerns
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slips 0.5 pt. to 90.8 in Sept., having remained well below its long-term average.
- Small Business Uncertainty Index posts its third m/m rise in four months.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months plunges to -43%, lowest since May; expected real sales up 1 pt. to -13%, still a pessimistic perspective.
- Inflation remains top business concern, tied w/ quality of labor.
- Total August construction +0.5% (7.4% y/y), matching expectations.
- Residential private construction rises for the fourth straight month, led by m/m construction gains in single-family and multi-family.
- Nonresidential private construction advances for the 14th time in 15 months.
- Public sector construction rebounds, led by a rise in nonresidential public construction.
USA| Sep 29 2023U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to a Five-Month Low in August
- $84.27 billion deficit in August, smaller than expected.
- Exports increase 2.2%, up for the second straight month.
- Imports decline 1.2%, down for the third time in four months.
USA| Sep 28 2023U.S. Pending Home Sales Slump in August
- PHSI -7.1% (-18.7% y/y) in August; first m/m decline since May.
- Lowest index level since April 2020.
- Widespread m/m drops in all the major regions, w/ double-digit y/y falling rates.
- With mortgage rates rising above 7%, home-buying activity will likely continue to slow.
USA| Sep 26 2023U.S. FHFA House Prices Continue to Appreciate in July
- FHFA HPI +0.8% m/m (+4.6% y/y) in July vs. +0.4% (+3.2% y/y) in June.
- House prices rise m/m in all of nine census divisions.
- House prices in the Mountain region and the Pacific region rebound modestly y/y.
- LEI down for the 17th straight month, possibly signaling a brief but mild recession over the next year.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the fourth time in five months.
- Lagging Economic Index up for the second consecutive month.
- Improvement in business activity in New York State, w/ General Business Conditions Index up 20.9 pts. to 1.9.
- Positive numbers for new orders (5.1) and shipments (12.4), but negative ones for unfilled orders (-5.2), inventories (-6.2) and employment (-2.7).
- Inflation pressures rise, w/ prices paid and prices received up to a four-month high.
- Optimism on the six-month outlook grows, w/ Future Business Conditions Index up to the highest level since March ’22.
- Initial claims increase for the first time since the August 5 week.
- Continuing claims climb to a three-week high.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady at 1.1%.
USA| Sep 06 2023U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $65.02 Billion in July
- Deficit widens in July after narrowing in the previous two months.
- Exports rise m/m for the first time since March; imports rise m/m for the first time since April.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $88.43 billion.
- A widening trade balance (net exports) has subtracted 0.2%-pts. from GDP growth in Q2’23.
- Goods trade deficit w/ China widens, while trade shortfalls w/ EU and Japan narrow.
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