- LEI down for the 17th straight month, possibly signaling a brief but mild recession over the next year.
- Coincident Economic Index up for the fourth time in five months.
- Lagging Economic Index up for the second consecutive month.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- Improvement in business activity in New York State, w/ General Business Conditions Index up 20.9 pts. to 1.9.
- Positive numbers for new orders (5.1) and shipments (12.4), but negative ones for unfilled orders (-5.2), inventories (-6.2) and employment (-2.7).
- Inflation pressures rise, w/ prices paid and prices received up to a four-month high.
- Optimism on the six-month outlook grows, w/ Future Business Conditions Index up to the highest level since March ’22.
- Initial claims increase for the first time since the August 5 week.
- Continuing claims climb to a three-week high.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady at 1.1%.
USA| Sep 06 2023U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $65.02 Billion in July
- Deficit widens in July after narrowing in the previous two months.
- Exports rise m/m for the first time since March; imports rise m/m for the first time since April.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $88.43 billion.
- A widening trade balance (net exports) has subtracted 0.2%-pts. from GDP growth in Q2’23.
- Goods trade deficit w/ China widens, while trade shortfalls w/ EU and Japan narrow.
- July manufacturers’ new orders (-2.1%) and durable goods orders (-5.2%) both fall m/m after rising for four straight months, while nondurable goods orders (+1.1%) up for the second consecutive month and shipments (+0.5%) up for the third successive month.
- Unfilled orders grow 0.5%, the fifth straight m/m increase.
- Inventories rebound 0.1%, the first m/m increase since April.
USA| Sep 01 2023U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at a Six-Month High But Below 50 for the 10th Straight Month
- 47.6 in August vs. 46.4 in July, slightly higher than expected.
- Production improves to the break-even level of 50 after contracting in July and June.
- Employment contracts for the third successive month.
- New orders contract for the 12th consecutive month
- Prices index rises to 48.4, the highest reading since April’s 53.2.
USA| Aug 30 2023U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in July
- $91.18 billion deficit in July, slightly larger than expected.
- Exports rebound 1.5%, the first m/m gain since March.
- Imports rise 1.9% following two straight m/m drops.
USA| Aug 29 2023U.S. FHFA House Prices Continue to Rise in June
- FHFA HPI +0.3% m/m (+3.1% y/y) in June vs. +0.7% (+2.9% y/y) in May.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions (down in East North Central & West South Central and unchanged in East South Central).
- House prices in the Mountain region and the Pacific region continue to drop y/y.
- IP +1.0% in July, higher than expected; June revised down but May revised up.
- Mfg. IP recovers 0.5%, w/ durable goods up 0.8% and nondurable goods up 0.1%; motor vehicles production jumps 5.2% (10.3% y/y).
- Utilities output surges 5.4% (-0.9% y/y) after three consecutive m/m drops; mining activity rebounds 0.5% (2.0% y/y).
- Key categories in market groups gain except construction supplies production.
- Capacity utilization rises 0.7%-pt. to 79.3%; mfg. capacity utilization rises 0.3%-pt. to 77.8%.
USA| Aug 08 2023U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Shows Less Pessimism in July Amid Challenging Economic Environment
- July NFIB Optimism Index rises 0.9 pts. to 91.9; its 19th straight month below the 49-year average of 98.
- Small Business Uncertainty Index increases to 80; highest since June ’21.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months, while improving, remains in negative territory, at -30%; expected real sales up only two pts. to -12%, still a pessimistic perspective.
- Regarding Single Most Important Problem, inflation remains a major business concern as does the quality of labor.
- Total June construction +0.5% (3.5% y/y), marginally less than expected.
- Residential private construction increases 0.9% (-10.4% y/y), led by m/m construction gains in single-family and multi-family.
- Nonresidential private construction is virtually unchanged (+20.9% y/y) after a May drop.
- Public sector construction grows 0.3% (13.6% y/y), up for the 10th consecutive month, led by a 0.3% rise (13.8% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- Composite Index is at -11 in July, reflecting drops in production to -20 and new orders to -20 and a rebound in employment to a positive 4.
- Price indexes are mixed, w/ prices paid for raw materials rising to 9 and prices received for finished goods falling to -7.
- Expectations for future activity remain mostly flat, w/ employment expected to rise further.
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