Viewpoints

Retail sales hit new record highs in June and again in July. Record retail sales reflect a new normal in consumer spending patterns. Bans and restrictions emanating from the pandemic have boosted retail sales while curtailing spending [...]

Yesterday's release of Q2 GDP data in the UK has generated a more complete global picture of the economic devastation that's been generated by the Coronavirus pandemic. UK GDP specifically fell by 20.4% in Q2 which is the worst slump [...]

Failure to reach a compromise on a broad federal stimulus plan creates a big "hole" in consumer’s cash flow. The "hole" is so big it raises the risk of substantial reduction, if not a recession, in consumer spending in the coming [...]

With negotiations over new federal stimulus deadlocked, President Trump signed four executive measures that circumvent Congress's constitutional authority to tax and spend. Chaos in governing has been a trademark of the Trump [...]

In the movie Jurassic Park, there is a scene in which a jeep carrying the movies' 'stars' is fleeing a T-Rex. As the driver looks in the rearview mirror, you see plainly the warning that 'objects are closer than they appear.' [...]

Back when I was employed at the Chicago Fed, some of us from the economic research department and the legal department would gather in the cafeteria for afternoon coffee (not to mention morning coffee and lunch). I remember one [...]

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that Q2 Nominal GDP declined 34.3% annualized, the largest quarterly drop in our lifetime. On March 12, I penned the article "Investors Should Brace for a Record Decline in GDP". Never [...]

At the end of Q2, the market valuation of domestic companies relative to nominal GDP exceeded the tech bubble peak of Q1 2000. In other words, "2020 is the Most Overvalued Equity Market in Our Lifetime". Domestic Market Capitalization [...]