Global| Nov 02 2011ADP Reports Another Modest Employment Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market continues on the mend, just not too quickly. According to the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, private nonfarm payrolls grew 110,000 (0.1%) during [...]
The labor market continues on the mend, just not too quickly. According
to the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic
consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, private nonfarm payrolls grew
110,000 (0.1%) during October following a 116,000 increase in
September, revised from 91,000. The latest exceeds Consensus expectations
for a 105,000 rise. The recent small monthly increases left the
three-month growth rate at 1.1% (AR), down from February's 2.4%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report October payroll employment this Friday. Economists expect a 44,000 worker increase in jobs. By comparison, the September increase of 116,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 137,000 rise in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
A 114,000 increase in service-producing payrolls led the gain in the latest ADP estimate while goods-producing payrolls fell 4,000. Factory sector jobs slipped 8,000. Overall, small-sized payrolls grew 58,000 m/m (1.8% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls rose 53,000 (1.9% y/y). Large payrolls slipped another 1,000 (+0.3% y/y). Construction employment slipped 1,000 and the number of financial activities jobs ticked up 1,000.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP National Employment Report | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 110 | 116 | 85 | 1.6% | -1.1% | -4.8% | -0.6% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 58 | 64 | 56 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -3.9 | 0.0 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 53 | 48 | 31 | 1.9 | -1.0 | -5.6 | -0.9 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | -1 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | -2.0 | -5.6 | -1.9 |
| Goods Producing | -4 | -6 | 5 | 1.0 | -5.1 | -12.3 | -3.6 |
| Manufacturing | -8 | -7 | -8 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -11.3 | -3.2 |
| Service Producing | 114 | 122 | 80 | 1.7 | -0.2 | -3.1 | 0.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
