Global| Aug 30 2005Chain Store Sales Down With Higher Gas Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales fell again according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Last week's 0.3% decline marked the fourth consecutive weekly skid and dropped the August sales average 0.1% below July which [...]
Chain store sales fell again according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Last week's 0.3% decline marked the fourth consecutive weekly skid and dropped the August sales average 0.1% below July which rose 0.8% from June.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline. Recent weakness in chain store sales has accompanied the spurt in gasoline prices. Last week, gasoline prices were about stable w/w at $2.61 per gallon, a level up 46% since the start of this year. The spot price of gasoline this week is up another 10% w/w. The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC gave back half of the prior week's rise. The indicator's recent erratic movement has left the August average 0.3% below July which fell 0.4% from June. The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.Reflections on central banking, remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, are available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 08/27/05 | 08/20/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 455.5 | 456.8 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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