Global| May 09 2006Chain Store Sales Fell With Gasoline Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales slipped 0.4% last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The decline, however, followed several heady gains during April. Therefore, the opening level of May sales was [...]
Chain store sales slipped 0.4% last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The decline, however, followed several heady gains during April. Therefore, the opening level of May sales was 0.3% above the April average which rose 1.6% from March.
During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The chain store sales leading indicator was unchanged (-1.0% y/y) during the last week of April. The month's average fell 0.8% from March which rose 0.3% versus February.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Retail gasoline prices slipped one penny last week to $2.91 per gallon, reversing the modest rise during the prior week. Yesterday, the recent decline in spot market gasoline prices continued and for unleaded regular, the NY price was off 13 cents from last week's average.
Bringing Down Gas and Oil Prices from the American Enterprise Institute is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 05/06/06 | 04/29/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 475.9 | 477.7 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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