Global| Dec 30 2005Chicago PMI Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer held at 61.5 in December versus an unrevised 61.7 in November. Consensus expectations had been for an easing to 60. For the year, the reading of 60.6 was slightly below the 2004 level [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer held at 61.5 in December versus an unrevised 61.7 in November. Consensus expectations had been for an easing to 60. For the year, the reading of 60.6 was slightly below the 2004 level and consistent with the moderate slowdown in factory sector production to 3.5% growth through November and 4.8% during all of 2004.
During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and y/y growth in factory production.
The new orders index surged at yearend and recovered about half the prior month's steep decline. The production index dipped slightly, offset by a modest gain in employment. During the last ten years there has been a 62% correlation between the level of the employment index and year to year growth in factory sector employment nationally.
Pricing power eased in December but just moderately from the near-record high in November. During the last ten years there has been a 79% correlation between the prices index and the y/y change in the core PPI for intermediate goods.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Dec | Nov | Dec '04 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 61.5 | 61.7 | 61.9 | 60.6 | 62.9 | 54.6 |
| New Orders | 66.7 | 61.6 | 64.9 | 64.7 | 67.0 | 58.0 |
| Prices Paid | 83.8 | 94.1 | 84.4 | 71.1 | 80.1 | 55.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
