Global| Mar 31 2005Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Highest Since 1988
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for March jumped 6.5 points to 69.2 and easily surpassed Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.3. The surge was to the highest level since 1988. The gain suggests improvement in [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for March jumped 6.5 points to 69.2 and easily surpassed Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.3. The surge was to the highest level since 1988.
The gain suggests improvement in tomorrow's ISM composite manufacturing index. During the last thirty years the correlation between the two indexes has exceeded 90% and there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output.
The employment index surged another 8.3 points to a near record 66.0. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders and the production indexes also surged.
The index of prices paid fell again to the lowest level in a year. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Mar | Feb | Mar '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 69.2 | 62.7 | 60.4 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 76.7 | 68.5 | 61.6 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 68.2 | 70.1 | 75.3 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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