Global| Sep 30 2005Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Improved Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly in September to 60.5, recovering most of the 14.3 point decline in August. Consensus expectations had been for a slight increase to 52. During the last ten years [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved unexpectedly in September to 60.5, recovering most of the 14.3 point decline in August. Consensus expectations had been for a slight increase to 52.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders index rose 16.9 points after a 23.1 point drop in August but the production index gained back less than half of the 14.3 point August shortfall. Employment fell for the fifth month in the last six. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices surged 13.4 points to the highest level since Januarys. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Sept | Aug | Sept '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 60.5 | 49.2 | 64.3 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 63.4 | 46.5 | 71.8 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 76.3 | 62.9 | 86.9 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
