Global| Nov 30 2016Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index increased to 57.6 during November and recouped an unrevised October decline to 50.6. The latest was the highest level since January 2015. The figure compared to expectations for [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index increased to 57.6 during November and recouped an unrevised October decline to 50.6. The latest was the highest level since January 2015. The figure compared to expectations for 52.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 56.4, the highest level since December 2014. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
The new orders series jumped to 63.2 from 52.5, the highest level since June. The production series improved to 59.1 and made up most of its October decline. The order backlog series jumped to 52.8, the highest level since June. The inventories figure increased sharply to 56.1, the highest level since October.
Working the other way, the employment figure eased to below break-even at 49.7 versus 51.1 in October. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment.
The prices paid reading also declined to 56.8 from 59.5. The figure compared to a February low of 41.1. A lessened 19% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a steady 8% paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Barometer | 57.6 | 50.6 | 54.2 | 47.7 | 50.3 | 60.7 | 56.0 |
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 56.4 | 51.0 | 53.7 | 48.7 | 51.6 | 59.3 | 54.2 |
| Production | 59.1 | 54.4 | 59.8 | 50.5 | 52.5 | 64.5 | 58.2 |
| New Orders | 63.2 | 52.5 | 54.1 | 44.5 | 50.4 | 63.8 | 59.1 |
| Order Backlogs | 52.8 | 44.4 | 42.3 | 46.3 | 44.4 | 54.2 | 48.8 |
| Inventories | 56.1 | 45.9 | 50.3 | 47.2 | 52.1 | 55.9 | 45.6 |
| Employment | 49.7 | 51.1 | 49.2 | 49.8 | 50.3 | 56.0 | 55.6 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 53.9 | 51.2 | 55.0 | 51.6 | 52.5 | 56.5 | 52.5 |
| Prices Paid | 56.8 | 59.5 | 55.5 | 42.2 | 46.8 | 61.0 | 59.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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