Global| Nov 29 2005Consumer Confidence Recovered
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that it's November index of Consumer Confidence recovered to the highest level since August. The 16.1% m/m jump contrasted to Consensus expectations for a lesser gain to 90.0 and it was the strongest m/m [...]
The Conference Board reported that it's November index of Consumer Confidence recovered to the highest level since August. The 16.1% m/m jump contrasted to Consensus expectations for a lesser gain to 90.0 and it was the strongest m/m increase since early 2003. The gain exceeded the 10.0% m/m rebound in Consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers' expectations ballooned 26.7% m/m (-1.6% y/y) as optimism rose that during the next six months business conditions would get better, more jobs would be created and that incomes would rise.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation also improved and recovered some of the prior two months' decline (+18.4% y/y). Though an increased percentage of respondents indicated business conditions were good, jobs were viewed as hard to get by a lesser 23.2% of survey participants.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 98.9 | 85.2 | 6.8% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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