Global| May 26 2017Durable Goods Orders Decline Led by Transportation
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% (+0.9% y/y) during April following a 2.3% March rise, revised from 0.7%. Earlier figures also were revised back to 2002. A 1.1% decrease in orders had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
New orders for durable goods declined 0.7% (+0.9% y/y) during April following a 2.3% March rise, revised from 0.7%. Earlier figures also were revised back to 2002. A 1.1% decrease in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The decline in durable good orders reflected a 1.2% fall in transportation bookings. They were pulled lower by a 9.2% drop (-27.5% y/y) in civilian aircraft orders. Defense aircraft orders gained 7.1% (-8.7% y/y) while motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.3% (-0.0% y/y).
Electrical equipment orders fell 1.7% (+2.5% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Machinery orders also eased 0.8% (+7.0% y/y), but orders for computers & related products jumped 5.0% (-2.6% y/y). Communication equipment orders gained 4.2% (3.6% y/y). Primary metals orders eased 0.2% (+9.9% y/y) and fabricated metal orders declined 0.9% (+7.5% y/y).
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 1.9% (-2.6% y/y) while orders excluding aircraft remained steady (+2.9% /y) for the third straight month.
Shipments of durable goods edged 0.3% lower (+2.8% y/y) and excluding transportation, shipments were off 0.2% (+4.6% y/y). Backlogs of durable goods orders rose 0.2% (-1.4% y/y) while excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.3% (2.8% y/y). Inventories of durable goods improved 0.1% (1.1% y/y). Inventories excluding the transportation sector increased 0.2% (2.7% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -0.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -1.7 | -4.6 | 4.7 |
| Transportation | -1.2 | 5.3 | 3.6 | -6.0 | -3.4 | -6.2 | 8.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.9 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 2.9 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -1.9 | 1.9 | 4.2 | -2.6 | -7.1 | -11.0 | 0.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.9 | -4.6 | -4.3 | 0.3 |
| Shipments | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 2.8 | -1.6 | -0.6 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -2.0 | 8.3 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 1.6 | 4.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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