Global| Jul 25 2008France’s Insee Services Indicator Plunges as Weakness Spreads
Summary
France’s formerly stable service sector is weakening: The Insee indicator that was above its mean level just three short months ago is now falling sharply. The service sector barometer is now in the 37th percentile of its range with [...]
France’s formerly stable service sector is weakening: The
Insee indicator that was above its mean level just three short months
ago is now falling sharply. The service sector barometer is now in the
37th percentile of its range with the outlook in the 35th percentile of
its range at a reading of -11 compared with an average of -2.
Observed sales are in the 62nd percentile of that series’
historic range while expected sales are ominously in the 40th
percentile of their range. The future is expected to be worse. Sales
prices are in the high seventies to 8oth percentiles. While employment
observed over the past three-months was in the 80th percentile of this
historic range for the next three-months the reading for expected
employment conditions is in the bottom 20th percentile.
| France INSEE Services Survey Jan 2000-date | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Climate Indicator | 94 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 36.7 | 68 | 113 | 83 | 30 | 102 |
| Climate: 3-Mo MAV | 99 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 50.6 | 55 | 113 | 85 | 28 | 102 |
| Climate: 12-Mo MAV | 106 | 108 | 109 | 109 | 79.7 | 24 | 110 | 91 | 20 | 102 |
| Outlook | -11 | -6 | -4 | -3 | 35.5 | 75 | 9 | -22 | 31 | -2 |
| Sales | ||||||||||
| Observed 3-Mos | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 62.1 | 41 | 18 | -11 | 29 | 6 |
| Expected 3-Mos | 1 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 40.7 | 70 | 17 | -10 | 27 | 7 |
| Sales Price | ||||||||||
| Observed over 3-Mos | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 77.8 | 7 | 5 | -4 | 9 | 0 |
| Expected over 3-Mos | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 80.0 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 | 0 |
| Employment | ||||||||||
| Observed over 3-Mos | 12 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 82.1 | 9 | 17 | -11 | 28 | 5 |
| Expected over 3-Mos | 0 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 20.8 | 68 | 19 | -5 | 24 | 5 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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