Global| May 16 2006Housing Starts Lowest Since 2004
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During April, housing starts fell 7.4% m/m to 1.849M units following the 6.4% March decline that was revised slightly shallower. Again, the decline by far exceeded Consensus expectations for a modest drop to 1.95M starts and reduced [...]
During April, housing starts fell 7.4% m/m to 1.849M units following the 6.4% March decline that was revised slightly shallower. Again, the decline by far exceeded Consensus expectations for a modest drop to 1.95M starts and reduced the number of starts to the lowest level since November 2004.
Since the peak this past January, total starts have fallen 18.4%.
Single-family starts dropped 5.6% to 1.535M units and added to the 10.3% March decline. The latest level is down 15.4% from the January peak and is the lowest since November 2004.
By region, single family housing starts were quite mixed last month. Starts in the South fell 15.9% m/m to a level that was off 19.9% from the January peak. In the West starts fell a moderate 3.6% but that added to the 19.1% slide in March and pulled the latest level down 22.0% from the February peak. In the Midwest single family starts moved in the opposite direction and reversed the prior month's decline with a 21.4% (+3.2% y/y) gain. In the Northeast starts also recovered the prior month's down draft and rose 6.7% though starts were still 17.7% off the January peak.
Multi family starts reversed the sharp March increase with a 15.1% decline to the lowest level since March of last years.
Building permits dropped by 5.4% for the third consecutive monthly decline and are off 10.7% from the peak last September.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,849 | 1,996 | -11.1% | 2,073 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,535 | 1,626 | -8.6% | 1,719 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 314 | 370 | -21.3% | 354 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 1,984 | 2,097 | -8.0% | 2,144 | 2,057 | 1,8 88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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