Global| May 18 2006Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims surged 42,000 last week to 367,000 due to a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico. The shutdown added 46,000 claims and has been resolved. Consensus expectations had been for 316,000 claims. [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims surged 42,000 last week to 367,000 due to a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico. The shutdown added 46,000 claims and has been resolved. Consensus expectations had been for 316,000 claims.
The Labor Department indicated that excluding claims related to the government shutdown in Puerto Rico seasonally adjusted initial claims would have been closer to 312,000.
The latest figure is for the survey period for May nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 63,000 (20.7%) from the April period. The payroll survey counts persons who were paid during the week which contains the 12th of the month as employed. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Excluding strikers, claims rose 8,000 (2.6%) from the April survey period for nonfarm payrolls.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 333,250 (-0.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 8,000 following a revised 60,000 decline during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.8%.
Job Matching: Evidence from the Beveridge Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/13/06 | 05/06/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 367 | 325 | 11.6% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,389 | -8.7% | 2,663 | 2,923 | 3,530 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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