Global| Feb 07 2002ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management (formerly the NAPM) business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector fell more than expected last month. A slight decline had been expected and new seasonal factors lowered the December level [...]
The Institute for Supply Management (formerly the NAPM) business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector fell more than expected last month. A slight decline had been expected and new seasonal factors lowered the December level significantly.
New orders and imports fell, while employment was about unchanged for the second month.
Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the components mentioned above. This is in contrast to the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index that reflects component activity.
During the last four years, there has been a 44% correlation between the level of the NAPM nonmanufacturing index and quarterly growth in real GDP in the service sector.
The survey of nonmanufacturing activity dates only to July 1997. Therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | Jan '02 | Dec '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Index | 49.6 | 50.1 | 52.1 | 49.0 | 59.2 | 59.1 |
by Tom Moeller February 7, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly more than expected in the latest week. The prior week's level was little revised.
The decline in weekly claims since the October peak has lowered the four-week moving average to 380,500, down 24.8% since that peak.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell in the latest week, but the prior week's level was revised up significantly.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.7%. The prior week's level was revised up.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/02/02 | 01/26/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 376.0 | 391.0 | 4.2% | 408.0 | 302.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,427 | 45.6% | 3,031 | 2,127 | 2,187 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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