Global| Dec 23 2009Italy's Consumer Confidence Lifts Spirits For Christmas Oh Come Ye Faithful...
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Confidence rose again in December for Italian consumers making the string of rises two months long. Still, the overall situation deteriorated by one point to a -57 reading in December leaving the current situation in the 68th [...]
Confidence rose again in December for Italian consumers making
the string of rises two months long. Still, the overall situation
deteriorated by one point to a -57 reading in December leaving the
current situation in the 68th percentile of its range.
The outlook for the overall situation also backtracked
dropping by 5 points month to month. Unemployment expectations rose and
now reside on the top 5% of their range.
The outlook for current savings backtracked but the outlook
for future savings rose sharply in the month.
The current environment for major purchase was sharply better
with its index rising to -38 from -43 and moving up to the 59th
percentile of its range.
Clearly the Italian consumer still feels pressured. The rise
in confidence is a good development despite backtracking in some key
components.
Italy still has a long way to go to cement any notion of
stability.
| Since Jan 1992 Rank | |||||||
| Dec-09 | Nov-09 | Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Percentile | Rank | percentile | |
| Consumer Confidence | 113.7 | 112.8 | 111.7 | 113.6 | 60.1 | 76 | 64.3% |
| Last 12 months | |||||||
| OVERALL SITUATION | -57 | -56 | -58 | -58 | 72.0 | 68 | 68.1% |
| PRICE TRENDS | -41 | -39 | -40.5 | -42 | 13.6 | 207 | 2.8% |
| Next 12months | |||||||
| OVERALL SITUATION | -1 | 4 | -2 | 5 | 60.3 | 109 | 48.8% |
| PRICE TRENDS | 8.5 | 8 | 7 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 96 | 54.9% |
| UNEMPLOYMENT | 16 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 67.6 | 10 | 95.3% |
| HOUSEHOLD BUDGET | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17.8 | 199 | 6.6% |
| HOUSEHOLD FIN SITUATION | |||||||
| Last 12 months | -37 | -36 | -35 | -33 | 38.8 | 129 | 39.4% |
| Next12 months | -3 | -2 | -4 | -1 | 65.3 | 102 | 52.1% |
| HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS | |||||||
| Current | 73 | 77 | 79 | 80 | 88.3 | 6 | 97.2% |
| Future | -20 | -29 | -30 | -16 | 62.2 | 124 | 41.8% |
| MAJOR Purchases | |||||||
| Current | -38 | -43 | -38 | -40 | 47.3 | 87 | 59.2% |
| Total number of months: 213 | |||||||
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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