Global| Dec 31 2003Jobless Insurance Claims Lowest Since Early 2001
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell last week to 339,000, the lowest level since the first week of 2001. The prior week's level was little revised at 354,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 350,000. The four-week [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell last week to 339,000, the lowest level since the first week of 2001. The prior week's level was little revised at 354,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 350,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 355,750 (-13.3% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 81,000 but the prior week's sharp decline was about doubled to 74,000.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.6% for the sixth straight week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/27 | 12/20 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 339.0 | 354.0 | -15.3% | 404.3 | 406.0 | 299.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,315 | -4.4% | 3,575 | 3,022 | 2,114 |
by Tom Moeller December 31, 2003
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 9.0% last week (-39.6% y/y).
Purchase applications fell 5.2% w/w (+17.4% y/y). Purchase applications so far in December are down 3.8% from the November average.
Applications to refinance fell 13.8% week to week (-63.9% y/y). December refis are down 16.3% from November.
During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage rose slightly to 6.00%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.36%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 12/26 | 12/19 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 574.1 | 631.2 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 390.1 | 411.6 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 1,644.3 | 1,908.3 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
