Global| Feb 05 2003Mortgage Applications Still Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, fell a slight 2.5% last week (+101.2% y/y). For the month of January, applications rose 23.2% from December and were up 89.1% from last January. [...]
The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, fell a slight 2.5% last week (+101.2% y/y). For the month of January, applications rose 23.2% from December and were up 89.1% from last January.
Mortgage applications to refinance fell slightly for the week but were up by one third from December and were nearly triple last year's level.
Mortgage applications for home purchase rose for the second week and for the month were up 1.4% (1.8% y/y).
Interest rates on conventional 30 Year mortgages remained stable for the week at 5.72% and were down from 7.04% a year ago.
For analysis by the Federal Reserve of mortgage refinancing trends, click here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 1/31/03 | 1/24/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 1,141.4 | 1,171.2 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 371.1 | 365.5 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 5,621.6 | 5,858.1 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
by Tom Moeller February 5, 2003
The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector rose last month from a downwardly revised December level. Consensus expectations were for a decline to 54.0.
Of the seasonally adjusted subgroups, the employment and new orders indexes rose modestly.
Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index weights the components.
The seasonally adjusted index of prices rose slightly.
During the last five years, there has been a 66% correlation between the level of the Business Activity Index from the ISM nonmanufacturing survey and quarterly growth in real GDP in the service sector plus structures.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Index | 54.5 | 54.2 | 49.5 | 55.1 | 49.0 | 59.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
