Global| Jun 13 2002Retail Sales Broadly Lower in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales fell more than expected last month due to broad based declines. April sales were little revised. Sales excluding autos also fell versus expectations for a slight rise. Declines were widespread. Sales of motor [...]
Total retail sales fell more than expected last month due to broad based declines. April sales were little revised. Sales excluding autos also fell versus expectations for a slight rise.
Declines were widespread. Sales of motor vehicles (-5.8% YTD), apparel (-0.7% YTD), general merchandise (+1.7% YTD), gasoline (+8.6% YTD), building materials (+7.1% YTD) and restaurants (+0.1% YTD) all fell.
Sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics rose sharply (0.9% YTD) led by strong electronics sales.
Unit sales in May of domestic and imported light vehicles fell a sharp 9.7% to 15.67M (SAAR).
| May | April | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.4% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
by Tom Moeller June 13, 2002
Finished producer prices fell vs. Consensus expectations for a 0.1% gain. It was the second consecutive decline in May led by lower energy prices. Core finished goods prices were unchanged (-0.1% YTD), about as expected.
Energy prices fell for the first time since January led by lower prices for gasoline and heating oil. Market gasoline prices in early June are flat-to-lower versus May.
Food prices fell for the second consecutive month.
Core finished consumer goods prices were unchanged (0.1% YTD). Core nondurable goods prices were unchanged and durable goods prices fell for the fourth month this year. Capital goods prices also dropped for the fourth month this year.
Intermediate goods prices were broadly weak led by lower nondurable prices.
Crude goods prices rose, although many commodity prices fell through the month.
| Producer Price Index | May | April | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.4% | -0.2% | -2.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Core | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.5% | 0.9% | -3.0% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Core | 0.0% | 0.2% | -1.4% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| Crude Goods | 1.7% | 5.5% | -15.9% | 0.3% | 22.8% | 1.5% |
| Core | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | -9.9% | 7.3% | -4.7% |
by Tom Moeller June 13, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose moderately in the latest week, about as expected. The prior week's level, which had fallen sharply, was little revised.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell for the third week and the prior week's level was revised down.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 402,500, -2.2% y/y.
The insured rate of unemployment fell slightly to 2.9%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 6/8/02 | 6/1/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 390.0 | 384.0 | -6.5% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,773 | 27.1% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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