Global| Feb 28 2002Revised 4Q GDP Up More Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
GDP last quarter was revised to show more real growth than expectations for only a modest upward revision. Upward revisions to real PCE (6.0% AR) drove domestic final demand growth higher despite continued weakness in both residential [...]
GDP last quarter was revised to show more real growth than expectations for only a modest upward revision.
Upward revisions to real PCE (6.0% AR) drove domestic final demand growth higher despite continued weakness in both residential (-5.0%) and business fixed investment (-13.1%).
The rate of inventory decumulation was little changed, about doubling versus 3Q.
The net export deficit was lessened significantly due to a decline in imports that was revised deeper.
| Chained '96 $, % AR | 4Q '01 (Revised) | 4Q '01 (Advance) | 3Q '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.4% | 0.2% | -1.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Inventory Effect | -2.2% | -2.3% | -0.8% | -1.6% | -1.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Final Sales | 3.6% | 2.5% | -0.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Trade Effect | -0.3% | -0.7% | -0.2% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.9% | 3.2% | -0.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| Chained GDP Price Deflator | -0.3% | -0.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
by Tom Moeller February 28, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to the level which was expected in the latest week, however the prior week's level was revised substantially lower. The monthly average of claims was the lowest since February of last year.
The chart plots the level of weekly claims against the (inverted) monthly change in nonfarm payrolls. Only a modest decline in February payrolls is suggested for next Friday's, 3/8, release.
The four-week moving average of claims fell to 373,250.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly in the latest week. The prior week's level was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.7% for the third week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/23/02 | 02/16/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 378.0 | 361.0 | 1.1% | 408.0 | 302.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,492 | 42.5% | 3,3031 | 2,127 | 2,187 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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