Global| Mar 30 2020Texas Factory Activity Collapses
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index weakened to -70.0 this month from 1.2 in February. The decline mirrored the readings from other regional [...]
Texas Factory Activity Collapses
by Tom
Moeller March 30, 2020
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index weakened to -70.0 this month from 1.2 in February. The decline mirrored the readings from other regional Federal Reserve banks reported in recent weeks. The figure is a diffusion index with readings above zero indicating positive growth.
The production, shipments, new orders, employment and wages indexes each collapsed this month. Each measure indicated drastically lower readings for activity. Pricing power also fell to its weakest level since February 2016.Expected business conditions readings in six months weakened notably as well, led by a collapse in production.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all respondents report rising activity, the index will register 100. The index will register -100 when all respondents report a decrease. The index will be zero when the number of respondents reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | -70.0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 6.9 | -0.7 | 25.8 | 20.6 |
| Production | -35.3 | 16.4 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 21.4 | 20.2 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | -44.9 | 3.6 | 6.1 | -2.0 | -0.8 | 14.8 | 11.4 |
| Employment | -23.0 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 20.0 | 11.4 |
| Wages & Benefits | 5.5 | 22.6 | 16.3 | 30.0 | 24.0 | 29.7 | 22.2 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | -9.2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 17.6 | 12.7 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | -39.5 | 18.0 | 7.6 | 18.4 | 7.2 | 31.6 | 34.5 |
| Production | -18.7 | 35.0 | 38.9 | 51.5 | 36.1 | 48.5 | 46.8 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | -20.7 | 30.0 | 27.0 | 32.4 | 25.6 | 35.9 | 37.7 |
| Employment | -16.7 | 20.4 | 25.3 | 37.5 | 26.7 | 37.6 | -35.2 |
| Wages & Benefits | 0.7 | 39.7 | 42.4 | 54.3 | 39.9 | 50.4 | 43.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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