Global| Nov 04 2020U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Weakens in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Slowdown is broad-based across company size. • Employment increase is well below expectations. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 365,000 (-7.3% y/y) during October following [...]
• Slowdown is broad-based across company size.
• Employment increase is well below expectations.
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 365,000 (-7.3% y/y) during October following a 753,000 September rise, revised from 749,000. August payrolls rose 482,000, revised from 481,000. A 671,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ADP report is based on survey data through October 12.
Large payrolls increased 116,000 (-7.5% y/y) following a 296,000 rise, revised from 297,000. It was the smallest increase since the beginning of the recovery. Medium-sized payrolls improved 135,000 (-8.6% y/y) after a 252,000 September increase, revised from 259,000. Small-sized payrolls rose 114,000 (-5.7% y/y) after a 204,000 gain during the prior month, revised from 192,000.
Within industry sectors, employment amongst goods-producing firms edged 17,000 higher (-3.7% y/y) following a 198,000 September improvement, revised from 196,000. The size of construction sector payrolls improved just 7,000 (-1.7% y/y) following an unrevised 60,000 increase. Factory sector employment also rose 7,000 last month (-4.4% y/y) after firming a little-changed 131,000 during September. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector edged 3,000 higher (-11.9% y/y), up for the third straight month.
Employment in the private service sector rose 348,000 (-8.0% y/y) during October following a 555,000 September gain, revised from 552,000. A 125,000 rise (-23.4% y/y) in leisure & hospitality employment led the increase following an unrevised 92,000 increase. The number of education & health services jobs rose 79,000 (-4.3% y/y) after improving an unrevised 90,000 in September. A 60,000 gain (-6.1% y/y) in the number of professional business services jobs followed an 81,000 rise, revised from 78,000. Trade, transportation & utilities jobs increased 53,000 (-5.2% y/y) after rising a little-revised 185,000 in September. Jobs in financial services rose 6,000 (-1.3% y/y) after improving 29,000. Information sector payrolls held steady (-10.4% y/y) following a 17,000 increase.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 365 | 753 | 482 | -7.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 114 | 204 | 71 | -5.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 135 | 252 | 90 | -8.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 116 | 296 | 321 | -7.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 17 | 198 | 47 | -3.7 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Construction | 7 | 60 | 26 | -1.7 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Manufacturing | 7 | 131 | 19 | -4.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Service-Producing | 348 | 555 | 435 | -8.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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