Global| Nov 30 2016U.S. ADP Private Payroll Increase Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm payroll employment increased 216,000 during November following a 119,000 October rise, revised from 147,000. The September increase of 196,000 also was revised down [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm payroll employment increased 216,000 during November following a 119,000 October rise, revised from 147,000. The September increase of 196,000 also was revised down from 202,000. The latest was the largest increase since June. So far this year, payrolls rose an average 176,000 per month, down from 209,000 averaged during 2015, and 237,000 averaged in 2014. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 160,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 37,000 (1.7% y/y) after an 18,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 120,000 averaged in Q4'14. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 89,000 (1.6% y/y) compared to 40,000 in October, both less than the 112,000 averaged in Q1'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 90,000 increase in jobs (2.7% y/y), up from the 19,000 averaged in Q2'15.
Service-producing payrolls increased 228,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 138,000 rise. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 69,000 (1.7% y/y). Professional & business payrolls rose 68,000 (3.1% y/y). Education & health services employment gained 43,000 (2.6% y/y), while the leisure & hospitality sector increased hiring by 38,000 (2.5% y/y). Financial sector payrolls added 12,000 (2.1% y/y).
Goods-producing jobs declined 11,000 (-0.2% y/y) after a 20,000 increase. Employment in the construction industry inched 2,000 higher (+1.3% y/y) following a 16,000 decline. Hiring in the factory sector fell 10,000 (-0.3% y/y) after a 1,000 slip.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
A View from the Fed by Fed Governor Jerome H. Powell is available here.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 216 | 119 | 196 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 37 | 18 | 51 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 89 | 40 | 75 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 90 | 60 | 71 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goods-Producing | -11 | -20 | 32 | -0.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Construction | 2 | -16 | 30 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| Manufacturing | -10 | -1 | 4 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Service-Producing | 228 | 138 | 164 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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