Global| Nov 16 2005U.S. Business Inventories Higher Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories in September added 0.5% to the prior month's 0.4% rise. The gains marked the strongest consecutive monthly increases since February & March yet they failed to reverse the decline in the ratio of inventories- [...]
Total business inventories in September added 0.5% to the prior month's 0.4% rise. The gains marked the strongest consecutive monthly increases since February & March yet they failed to reverse the decline in the ratio of inventories-to-sales which fell to a new record low. The I/S ratio fell to 1.25 as business sales increased 0.6% (7.8% y/y).
The 0.9% rise in retail inventories repeated its August increase due to a 2.1% jump in motor vehicle inventories. Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.4% as clothing inventories rose 0.5% (5.7% y/y) and general merchandise increased 0.4% (6.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.3% (+5.7% y/y) for the third consecutive down month.
Factory sector inventories fell for the second consecutive month.
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.4% | 0.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.6% | 0.5% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | -0.2% | -0.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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