Global| Oct 30 2007U.S. Chain Store Sales Sustain Lower Level, Gasoline Prices Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales held steady last week (2.5% y/y) after a 1.5% decline during the week prior. The average level of store sales in October is down 0.8% from the [...]
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales held steady last week (2.5% y/y) after a 1.5% decline during the week prior.
The average level of store sales in October is down 0.8% from the September average. That follows a 0.8% decline in the average level of chain store sales during September versus the August average.During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline during the prior week.
The decline in chain store sales accompanied a another nickel rise in average gasoline prices across the country to $2.87 (27.9% y/y) per gallon.Higher gasoline prices followed the 4.7% m/m increase in crude oil prices so far in October to $83.47 per barrel. That rise since has backed off slightly from the daily high this month of $89.48 per barrel but only to $87.57.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 10/27/07 | 10/20/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 473.3 | 472.9 | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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