Global| Sep 17 2013U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Remains Subdued
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices posted a minimal increase last month. The August consumer price index rise of just 0.1% (1.5% y/y) followed an unrevised 0.2% gain during July. A 0.2% increase had been expected according to the Action Economics [...]
Consumer prices posted a minimal increase last month. The August consumer price index rise of just 0.1% (1.5% y/y) followed an unrevised 0.2% gain during July. A 0.2% increase had been expected according to the Action Economics Survey. Prices excluding food and energy also gained a minimal 0.1% (1.8% y/y) and contrasted with expectations for a 0.2% rise.
A 0.3% decline (-0.1% y/y) in energy prices accounted for much of the slower monthly CPI increase. The pullback was led by a 2.3% decline (+4.8% y/y) in natural gas prices. In addition, gasoline prices slipped 0.1% (-2.4% y/y) following two months of strong increase. To the upside, fuel oil prices gained 1.2%, about as in July, but they were unchanged y/y. Food price inflation remained minimal as another 0.1% increase left the y/y gain steady at 1.4%. Fruit & vegetable prices jumped 1.2% (3.6% y/y) while meat prices gained 0.6% (2.2% y/y). These increases were offset by a 0.4% decline (+0.7% y/y) in processed fruit & vegetable costs and a 0.1% dip (-1.0% y/y) in beverage prices.
Prices for goods less food and energy were roughly unchanged m/m and y/y. Appliance prices dropped 0.6% (-2.5% y/y) while furniture costs fell 0.2% (-1.2% y/y). Recreational product prices were off 0.3% (-1.6% y/y) but new vehicle prices remained unchanged (1.1% y/y). Apparel prices ticked 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) while medical care product costs gained 0.4% (-0.0% y/y), for the second straight month.
Core services prices increased 0.2% (2.4% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. The increase was driven by a 0.7% rise (3.1% y/y) in medical care costs. Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y) while owners equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y). Recreational service prices increased 0.2% (1.6% y/y) but public transportation prices fell 2.0% (+1.9% y/y), down for the third straight month.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | -0.3 | 0.2 | 3.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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