U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens to Another Record in March as Imports Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Advance reading reflects higher consumer goods & auto imports.
- Other imports also are strong, while exports rise modestly.
- Exports growth held back by fall in nonauto consumer & capital goods.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods deepened to $162.0 billion in March after narrowing to $147.8 billion in February, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A deficit of $143.0 billion for March had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In Q1'25, the goods trade deficit widened to $463.2 billion after rising to $324.0 billion in Q4'24 from $305.1 billion in Q3'24. In real terms, the Q1’25 trade deficit is likely to have subtracted from real GDP growth, after having added 0.26 percentage point to growth in Q4'24.
Total goods imports jumped 5.0% (31.3% y/y) to $342.7 billion in March after a 0.3% February gain. Consumer goods imports surged 27.7% (54.1% y/y) following a 2.9% increase. Auto imports strengthened 6.6% (9.5% y/y) after a 1.2% rise while capital goods imports increased 4.0% in March (23.2% y/y) following a 1.7% February gain. Offsetting these increases, imports of industrial supplies & materials declined 13.3% (+39.9% y/y) after falling 3.7% in February. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+10.9% y/y) following a 2.1% decline and imports of “other” goods were off 5.6% (+13.7% y/y) after a 4.7% February increase.
Total goods exports rose 1.2% (6.9% y/y) to $180.8 billion in March, the fourth rise in five months, after increasing 3.7% in February. The rise reflected a 6.9% surge (-0.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages after a decline of 2.5% In February. Industrial supplies & materials exports gained 3.2% (4.5% y/y) after increasing 4.6% in February. Exports of autos surged 7.9% (10.8% y/y) following a 2.7% increase. Exports of other goods edged 0.3% higher (2.4% y/y) after four straight months of decline. Offsetting these gains, consumer goods exports declined 1.6% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Capital goods exports were off 2.6% (+13.3% y/y) after rising 4.8% in February.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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