Global| Oct 30 2013U.S. Consumer Prices Rise Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The September consumer price index matched expectations and increased 0.2% (1.5% y/y). That followed an unrevised 0.1% uptick during August. Prices excluding food and energy again rose a minimal 0.1% (1.7% y/y) and contrasted with [...]
The September consumer price index matched expectations and increased 0.2% (1.5% y/y). That followed an unrevised 0.1% uptick during August. Prices excluding food and energy again rose a minimal 0.1% (1.7% y/y) and contrasted with expectations for a 0.2% rise.
A quickened 0.8% rise (-3.1% y/y) in energy prices pushed the CPI higher. Natural gas prices gained 1.8% (5.3% y/y) while fuel oil costs rose 0.9% (-3.1% y/y). Gasoline prices increased 0.8% (-7.5% y/y) and electricity prices rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y). Food prices were unchanged (1.4%y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices gained 0.3% (3.1% y/y) and cereal & bakery product costs rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y). These increases were offset by a 0.9% decline (+3.0% y/y) in fruit & vegetable costs and a 0.2% fall (-1.8% y/y) in beverage prices.
Prices for goods less food and energy slipped 0.1% (-0.1% y/y). Appliance prices increased 0.7% (-1.0% y/y), new vehicle prices gained 0.1% (1.2% y/y) and medical care product prices ticked 0.1% higher (0.2% y/y). To the downside, furniture costs were off 0.8% (-2.2% y/y), recreational product prices declined 0.7% (-2.2% y/y) and apparel prices fell 0.5% (+0.8% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y) for the fifth consecutive month. The increase was driven by a 0.9% rise (1.6% y/y) in public transportation costs. Medical care costs rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) as did recreation services prices (1.7% y/y). Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y) while owners equivalent rent of primary residences also rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Food | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Energy | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -3.1 | 0.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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