Global| Dec 21 2012U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls To Lowest Since July; Annual Reading Is Highest Since 2007
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer lost the holiday spirit this month. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment in December fell to 72.9 from 82.7 last month. The reading also fell short of the mid-month figure, 74.5. The latest was the [...]
The consumer lost the holiday spirit this month. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment in December fell to 72.9 from 82.7 last month. The reading also fell short of the mid-month figure, 74.5. The latest was the lowest since July and disappointed consensus expectations for 75.0. For the full year, however, sentiment improved to a reading of 76.5, its highest since 2007. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The reading of consumer expectations last month dropped a sharp 17.8% m/m to 63.8, its lowest level in twelve months. For the year, however, the reading of 70.7 also was the highest since 2007. The consumer remained relatively upbeat about today's economy. The sentiment reading of current economic conditions fell a lesser 4.1% m/m to 87.0, its lowest since September. For all of 2012, the reading improved to 85.6, its highest since 2007.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The forecast figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec 2011 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Consumer Sentiment | 72.9 | 82.7 | 82.6 | 69.9 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 87.0 | 90.7 | 88.1 | 79.6 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 63.8 | 77.6 | 79.0 | 63.6 | 70.8 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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