Global| Feb 27 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January Dive; Forward Momentum Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Deterioration in factory sector momentum remains in place. For January, total durable goods orders fell 5.2% following a 3.7% December rise, revised from 4.6%. A 4.0% decline had been expected.Year-to-year, durable goods orders slid [...]
Deterioration in factory sector momentum remains in place. For January, total durable goods orders fell 5.2% following a 3.7% December rise, revised from 4.6%. A 4.0% decline had been expected.Year-to-year, durable goods orders slid 1.0% in January.
A m/m collapse in aircraft bookings (-46.0% y/y) led the decline in total durable goods orders last month. The decline in aircraft orders reflected lower orders for both nondefense (-49.7% y/y) and defense (-31.6% y/y) aircraft. Also falling were orders for computers & electronic products, off 5.3% (-7.6% y/y) as well as primary metals orders, down 3.6% (-0.2% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts bookings were flat (8.1% y/y).
There were some bright spots in the report. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders jumped 1.9% (3.0% y/y) last month. Machinery orders rose 13.5% (11.3% y/y) and electrical equipment bookings increased 1.4% (0.2% y/y). Orders for fabricated metal gained 1.0% (4.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods fell 1.2% (+2.7% y/y) last month and retreated from a record high level. Growth slowed, however, throughout most of last year. Transportation sector shipments fell 2.3% (+4.0% y/y) last month. Outside of the transportation sector, shipments fell 0.7% (+2.2% y/y) led lower by a 3.5% fall (-3.1% y/y) in computers & electronic products.
Unfilled orders for durable goods slipped 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) in January. Outside of the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.7% (-1.7% y/y). Inventories of durable goods inched up 0.2% (3.9% y/y) last month. Excluding transportation, inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -5.2 | 3.7 | 0.6 | -1.0 | 3.7 | 9.8 | 27.1 |
| Transportation | -19.8 | 9.9 | -0.7 | -10.0 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 57.4 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 18.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -0.1 | 1.4 | -2.2 | -7.9 | 0.4 | 13.2 | 36.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 6.3 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | -0.5 | 10.3 | 17.1 |
| Shipments | -1.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
