Global| Dec 07 2018U.S. Employment and Earnings Gains Weaken Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Labor market strength eased during November. Nonfarm payrolls increased 155,000 (1.7% y/y) after a 237,000 rise during October, revised from 250,000. September's gain was raised to 119,000 from 118,000. The November increase fell [...]
Labor market strength eased during November. Nonfarm payrolls increased 155,000 (1.7% y/y) after a 237,000 rise during October, revised from 250,000. September's gain was raised to 119,000 from 118,000. The November increase fell short of expectations for a 200,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during November after a 0.1% rise, revised from 0.2%. It left the y/y gain at 3.1% which remained the strongest since April 2009. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The unemployment rate held steady at an expected 3.7%. It was the lowest rate since December 1969.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 155 | 237 | 119 | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 250 | 118 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 27 | 26 | 19 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Construction | 5 | 24 | 15 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 132 | 198 | 80 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Government | -6 | -14 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
