Global| Jul 24 2008U.S. Existing Home Sales Drift Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For June the level of existing homes fell 2.6% to 4.86 million, reported the National Association of Realtors. The decline reversed all of a 2.0% increase during May and it was to a new low for this cycle. The figure was weaker than [...]
For June the level of existing homes fell 2.6% to 4.86 million, reported the National Association of Realtors. The decline reversed all of a 2.0% increase during May and it was to a new low for this cycle. The figure was weaker than the expected selling rate of 4.94M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes fell a larger 3.2%. These sales (which have a longer history than the total) were at the lowest level since early-1998.
By region, home sales in the West rose for the fourth straight month and they were up 17.0% from the October '07 low. Elsewhere, sales in the Northeast reversed the increases of the prior four months. In the Midwest total sales fell to near the low for this cycle but sales of single-family homes were at the lowest level since 1997. Sales down South fell to the lowest level since 2000.
Median home prices repeated their May increase and rose 3.5%. Prices were up 10.0% from the February low after a 33% three-month rate of decline in October. However, prices typically firm in the Spring.
The number of unsold homes (condos & single-family) on the market was roughly unchanged m/m (+2.8% y/y). At the current sales rate the inventory rose slightly to an 11.1 months supply which is about the record high for this series. For single-family homes there also was an 11.0 months supply at the current sales rate which was the highest supply since 1985.
The Fed's latest Beige Book which covers regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Existing Single Family Home Sales (Thous) |
June | y/y % | May | June '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,860 | -15.5 | 4,990 | 5,750 | 5,672 | 6,508 | 7,076 |
| Northeast | 850 | -15.8 | 910 | 1,010 | 1,008 | 1,090 | 1,168 |
| Midwest | 1,120 | -17.6 | 1,160 | 1,360 | 1,331 | 1,491 | 1,589 |
| South | 1,850 | -18.1 | 1,910 | 2,260 | 2,240 | 2,576 | 2,704 |
| West | 1,030 | -6.4 | 1,020 | 1,100 | 1,093 | 1,353 | 1,617 |
| Single-Family | 4,270 | -14.8 | 4,410 | 5,010 | 4,958 | 5,703 | 6,181 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 215,100 | -6.1 | 207,900 | 229,000 | 216,617 | 222,000 | 218,217 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
