Global| Nov 28 2005

U.S. Existing Home Sales Soften

by:Tom Moeller

|in:Economy in Brief

Summary

Total existing home sales fell 2.7% m/m to 7.090M (AR) in October according to the National Association of Realtors. The September level of sales was revised slightly higher. Consensus expectations for sales last month had been for [...]

Total existing home sales fell 2.7% m/m to 7.090M (AR) in October according to the National Association of Realtors. The September level of sales was revised slightly higher. Consensus expectations for sales last month had been for stability at 7.20M. Sales of single-family homes led the October decline with a 2.5% drop to 6.23 million. Lower sales of condos & co-ops also were weak and fell 4.4% (+6.2% y/y). The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months, and contrast to the new home sales data which count sales at the signing of a contract. Single family home sales fell throughout the country in October. In the Northeast sales posted a large 8.0% (-2.4% y/y) decline from September's level which had matched the June peak. In the South, sales reversed half of the prior month's gain with a 1.9% (+7.2% y/y) decline.In the Midwest single family sales slipped 1.4% (0.0% y/y), off 4.7% from the August peak, and in the West sales fell 1.3% m/m (+3.4% y/y for the third decline in the last four months. The median price of an existing single-family home gained back more than half of the prior month's decline with a 1.9% rise to $216,200 (16.6% y/y). Prices are not seasonally adjusted.

The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available here.

Existing Home Sales (000, AR)	Oct	Sept	Y/Y	2004	2003	2002
Total Home Sales	7,090	7,290	3.7%	6,723	6,170	5,653
Single Family Home Sales	6,230	6,390	3.3%	5,913	5,441	4,995
Single Family Median Home Price ($,000)	$216.2	$21 2.2	16.6%	$182.8	$169.1	$157.6

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  Tom Moeller

  Author

  Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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