Global| Dec 06 2018U.S. Factory Orders Decline, Led by Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Manufacturers' orders fell 2.1% (+6.9% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September rise, revised from 0.7%. The Action Economics Forecast survey had looked for a 2.0% decline. Durable goods orders fell 4.3% m/m (+7.8% y/y), revised [...]
Manufacturers' orders fell 2.1% (+6.9% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September rise, revised from 0.7%. The Action Economics Forecast survey had looked for a 2.0% decline.
Durable goods orders fell 4.3% m/m (+7.8% y/y), revised from -4.4% in the advance report, after little change in September. The decline was led by fewer orders for defense and civilian aircraft. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods improved 0.2% (4.6% y/y).
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) improved 0.3% (6.9% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. A 1.8% increase (24.3% y/y) in shipments from petroleum refineries led the gain. Textile product shipments also rose a steady 1.8% (12.4% y/y) and apparel shipments improved 0.3% (10.9% y/y). Basic chemical shipments held steady (5.4% y/y) and food product shipments rose 0.1% (0.2% y/y). Shipments of durable goods eased 0.5% (+6.9% y/y) after 0.9% increases in each of the prior two months. Computer & electronic product shipments rose 0.9% (5.9% y/y) and machinery shipments increased 0.3% (3.1% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.8% y/y) and total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.3% (4.8% y/y). Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery gained 0.4% (1.7% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector edged 0.1% higher (4.7% y/y) after a 0.6% jump. Durable goods inventories rose just 0.1% (4.4% y/y). Machinery inventories slipped 0.1% (+4.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products fell 1.0% (+1.1% y/y), reversing the prior month's rise. Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.4% (8.3% y/y) as transportation sector inventories also increased 0.4% (3.0% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories gained 0.2% (5.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories climbed 0.5% (17.7% y/y). Basic chemical inventories jumped 0.7% (4.5% y/y) but paper product inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -2.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
| Shipments | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
