Global| Nov 01 2011U.S. Gasoline Price Is Roughly Stable but Crude Oil Moves Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The modest improvement in the U.S. economy has helped slow the earlier decline in petroleum prices. The pump price for regular gasoline slipped one penny last week to $3.45 per gallon but was two cents higher than early-October. [...]
The modest improvement in the U.S. economy has helped slow the earlier decline in petroleum prices. The pump price for regular gasoline slipped one penny last week to $3.45 per gallon but was two cents higher than early-October. Prices remained down versus May when they averaged $3.91. Retail prices usually start to ease this time of year with reduced seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. As a result, the adjusted gasoline price rose to $3.58 per gallon, up seventeen cents in the last four weeks. Yesterday, the wholesale price for a gallon of unleaded slipped to $2.69, down five cents from last week's average.
Crude oil prices moved higher last week. Light Sweet Crude averaged $92.32 versus $79.71 averaged during the first week of October. Yesterday prices were even higher at $93.19. They remained down from the late-April peak of $113.93. Brent crude remained relatively expensive versus WTI and yesterday sold for $109.76 per barrel. Prices peaked earlier at $126.21.
Finally, natural gas prices ticked up last week to $3.62 per mmbtu, up 9.5% y/y. Prices remained lower versus last year's early-January peak of $6.50. Yesterday, prices held at $3.62. These figures compare to a 0.2% y/y gain in the September CPI for piped gas service.
Gasoline demand slipped 2.7% on average during the last four weeks versus last year. Demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, fell 2.6% y/y but distillate demand rose 7.5%. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 5.4% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
| Weekly Price | 10/31/11 | 10/24/11 | 10/17/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.45 | 3.46 | 3.48 | 23.0 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 92.32 | 86.71 | 85.56 | 12.6 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 3.62 | 3.61 | 3.49 | 9.5 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
