Global| Jul 16 2013

U.S. Home Builders Index Continues Its Sharp Improvement

Summary

The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo jumped 6 points to 57 this month following a 7 point advance in June. The latest rise was to the highest level since January 2006 and outpaced expectations for an unchanged 51. The index of single-family home sales increased to 60, the highest since February 2006. The index of sales during the next six months picked up steam and gained to 67, the highest level since October 2005. Also, realtors were busy generating sales. The index of traffic of prospective home buyers surged m/m to 45, its highest level since late 2005.

Improvement in activity occurred most everywhere in the country this month. The index for the West surged to 62 from 50 while the Midwest series jumped to 62 from 55. The figure for the Northeast showed a lesser rise to 41 from 38 while in the South it gained to 54 from 52. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.

National Association of Home Builders	Jul	Jun	May	Jul'12	2012	2011	2010
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100)	57	51	44	35	34	16	16
Single-Family Sales	60	55	48	36	36	16	16
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months	67	60	52	43	41	22	23
Traffic of Prospective Buyers	45	40	33	28	27	13	12
Northeast	41	38	40	34	29	17	20
Midwest	62	55	44	33	36	14	14
South	54	52	44	33	34	18	17
West	62	50	41	43	38	15	13

Tom Moeller
Author
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Surge During March

USA| Apr 24 2025

U.S. Home Builders Index Continues Its Sharp Improvement

Summary

Tom Moeller

More Economy in Brief

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Surge During March

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Back to a Negative Reading in March

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Hold Fairly Steady

U.S. New Home Sales Improve in March; Prices Weaken