Global| Nov 15 2018U.S. Import Prices Strengthen Along With Higher Petroleum Prices; Export Prices Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September rise, revised from 0.5%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. Strength in [...]
Import prices increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September rise, revised from 0.5%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Strength in import prices last month was led by 2.8% increase (31.4% y/y) in petroleum prices following a 0.9% gain, revised from 4.1%. Nonpetroleum import prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) following stability in September. Industrial supplies & materials costs rose 1.5% (14.2% y/y) following a 0.1% rise. Industrial materials prices excluding petroleum recovered 0.5% (3.8% y/y) after falling for three months. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) following the prior month's stability. Motor vehicle & parts prices gained 0.1% (0.2% y/y) after holding steady for three straight months. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) following no change for two consecutive months.
Export prices rose 0.4% (3.1% y/y) in October after holding steady in September, which was unrevised. A 0.1% rise in prices had been expected.
Agricultural commodities prices fell 0.3% last month (-4.5% y/y) after declining 1.3% in September. Nonagricultural costs improved 0.5% (3.9% y/y) in October and added to the 0.2% September rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices were little-changed (-4.6% y/y) following a 1.4% decline. The cost of industrial supplies & materials gained 1.4% (9.4% y/y) after falling in two of the prior three months. Excluding fuels & building materials, these prices rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y). Capital goods prices held steady (1.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.1% (0.8% y/y), for a second consecutive month. Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.2% (+0.4% y/y) after easing 0.1% for two straight months.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | -3.3 | -10.2 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | 2.8 | 0.9 | -2.1 | 31.4 | 26.6 | -19.7 | -46.0 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | -3.2 | -6.3 |
| Agricultural | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.3 | -4.5 | 1.5 | -5.4 | -13.3 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | -3.0 | -5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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