Global| Sep 21 2017U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial filings for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 259,000 during the week ended September 16 from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 284,000. Expectations had been for 300,000 initial claims in the Action Economics [...]
Initial filings for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 259,000 during the week ended September 16 from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 284,000. Expectations had been for 300,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average increased to 268,750.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey period for September nonfarm payrolls. There was an 11.6% increase from 232,000 in the August period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 1.980 million (-5.4% y/y) in the week ended September 9, after falling to 1.936 million the week before. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.953 million.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely across the country. For the week ended September 2, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), Nebraska (0.42%), North Carolina (0.50%), Utah (0.51%), Indiana (0.54%) and Florida (0.56%). The highest rates were found in Massachusetts (1.73%), California (1.80%), Pennsylvania (1.89%), Alaska (2.03%), Connecticut (2.05%) and New Jersey (2.55%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 09/16/17 | 09/09/17 | 09/02/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 259 | 282 | 298 | 3.3 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,980 | 1,936 | -5.4 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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