Global| Nov 08 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped to 214,000 (-11.6% y/y) during the week ended November 3 from 215,000 in the previous week, revised from 214,000. It was the lowest level in 45 years. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance slipped to 214,000 (-11.6% y/y) during the week ended November 3 from 215,000 in the previous week, revised from 214,000. It was the lowest level in 45 years. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 213,750 stands above the low of 206,000 in mid-September. During the last ten years, there has been an 80% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 1.623 million (-15.1% y/y) in the week ending October 27 from 1.631 million in the prior week. This is the lowest level of continuing claims since July 1973. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.633 million from 1.641 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.1% for a third week. This level compared to the recession high of 5.0% in June 2009.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 20, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.20%), North Dakota (0.31%), Nebraska (0.33%), Indiana (0.46%) and Florida (0.43%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.45%), Connecticut (1.55%), California (1.66%), New Jersey (1.87%) and Alaska (2.15%). Among the other largest states by population, the rates were 1.16% in New York, 1.21% in Illinois and 0.87% in Texas. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/03/18 | 10/27/18 | 10/20/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 214 | 215 | 216 | -11.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,623 | 1,631 | -15.1 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.1 | 1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
