Global| Oct 31 2013U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 340,000 (-7.4% y/y) during the week ended October 26 from an unrevised 350,000 during the prior week. The Labor Department indicated that no claims were due to a processing [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 340,000 (-7.4% y/y) during the week ended October 26 from an unrevised 350,000 during the prior week. The Labor Department indicated that no claims were due to a processing difficulties in California. For last week, the Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 340,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 356,250, its highest level since late-May. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended October 19 rose to 2.881 million (-11.3% y/y). The figure remained up from the early-September low of 2.788 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims slipped to 2.879 million. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2%, where it's been since late-August. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of October 12, the latest figure available, the total of all benefit recipients increased slightly to 3.896 million (-22.6% y/y). This broader measure is not seasonally adjusted. It compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010 and pre-recession figures that averaged 2.596 million for 2007. The number of individuals collecting emergency and extended payments in the week of October 12 fell to 1.318 million (-37.2% y/y), a new low for the economic recovery.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.36%), Virginia (1.13%), Florida (1.19%), Tennessee (1.28%), Indiana (1.37%), Georgia (1.42%) and Texas (1.42%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.96%), Wisconsin (2.07%), Illinois (2.34%), Pennsylvania (2.55%), California (2.70%), New Jersey (2.92%) and Alaska (3.86%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/26/13 | 10/19/13 | 10/12/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 340 | 350 | 362 | -7.4 | 375 | 409 | 459 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,881 | 2,850 | -11.3 | 3,318 | 3,744 | 4,544 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 (10/12) |
2.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 3.896 mil. | -22.6 | 6.047 mil. | 7.750 mil. | 9.850 mil. |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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