Global| Nov 27 2009U.S. New Home Sales Struggle Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Though sales of new homes rose 6.2% to 430,000 last month, the gain followed two months of decline. In all, new home sales have risen nearly one-third from the January trough and the October figure exceeded Consensus expectations for [...]
Though sales of new homes rose 6.2% to 430,000 last month, the
gain followed two months of decline. In all, new home sales have risen
nearly one-third from the January trough and the October figure
exceeded Consensus expectations for 405,000 sales.
Home prices firmed during October for the second consecutive
month. The median price of a new single-family home rose to $212,200
from an upwardly revised September level. The monthly increase pared
the y/y decline to 0.5% from its worst of -14.5% this past February.
The average new home price of $261,100 was off 4.7% y/y.
Price discounts, higher sales and much lower housing starts have combined to lower the overhang of unsold homes. It fell by more than one-third versus last year to the lowest level since the early 1970s (again, no typo). The months' supply of unsold homes fell further last month to 6.7 months and was down from the high of 12.4 months in January. The figure was the lowest since December 2006.
| US New Homes | October | September | August | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 430 | 405 | 415 | 5.1% | 481 | 769 | 1,049 |
| Northeast | 37 | 39 | 38 | 5.7 | 35 | 64 | 64 |
| Midwest | 56 | 70 | 55 | -11.1 | 69 | 118 | 161 |
| South | 244 | 198 | 212 | 8.4 | 264 | 408 | 559 |
| West | 93 | 98 | 110 | 8.1 | 113 | 178 | 266 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 212,200 | 210,700 | 206,300 | -0.5 | 230,408 | 243,742 | 243,067 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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