Global| Nov 06 2015U.S. Payroll Increase is Largest This Year; Earnings Strengthen and Jobless Rate Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market exhibited unexpected strength last month. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 271,000 following revised gains of 137,000 and 153,000 during the prior two months. Together, revisions added 12,000 jobs. The latest [...]
The labor market exhibited unexpected strength last month. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 271,000 following revised gains of 137,000 and 153,000 during the prior two months. Together, revisions added 12,000 jobs. The latest increase was the largest since December and beat expectations for a 178,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Stronger employment brought with it improved earnings. Average hourly earnings gained 0.4%, raising the twelve-month increase to 2.5%, a six-year high. A 0.2% rise had been expected. The unemployment rate declined to 5.0% as expected, the lowest since April 2008. The total unemployment rate, including marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons, fell to 9.8%.
The labor market data is contained Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Are Wages Useful in Forecasting Price Inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Employment: (SA M/M Change, 000s) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 271 | 137 | 153 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Previous | -- | 142 | 136 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 0 | -9 | -19 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Construction | 31 | 12 | 8 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Private Service Producing | 241 | 159 | 146 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Government | 3 | -12 | 28 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 (Oct.'14) |
34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.7 (Oct.'14) |
6.1 | 7.4 | 8.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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