Global| Jul 16 2020U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales Strengthen during June; Core Sales Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Consumer spending continues to strengthen. • Discretionary spending growth remains firm. Total retail sales, including food service establishments, increased 7.5% during June following a record 18.2% May increase, revised from [...]
• Consumer spending continues to strengthen.
• Discretionary spending growth remains firm.
Total retail sales, including food service establishments, increased 7.5% during June following a record 18.2% May increase, revised from 17.7%. A 5.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts improved 7.3% following a 12.1% gain, revised from 12.4%. A 5.3% rise had been anticipated. In the retail control group, (which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services), sales rose 5.6% (6.3% y/y) after strengthening 10.1% in May.
Retail sales excluding restaurants improved 6.4% last month on the heels of a 17.1% rise. Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships rose 8.2% following a 48.7% increase. Unit sales of motor vehicles rose 8.1% in June. It followed a 40.5% May recovery which came after two months of double-digit decline. Gasoline & service station sales increased 15.3% (-19.1% y/y) as prices rose and stay-at-home restrictions eased.
Eating out remained on an upward trend as restaurant and drinking establishment sales jumped 20.0%. Combined with the 31.5% May rise, sales have fully recovered sharp declines in the prior two months. Nevertheless they remained one-quarter below the February level.
Ordering goods from home eased somewhat last month. Sales of nonstore retailers fell 2.4% after strong growth earlier in the year, and they remained up by roughly one-quarter y/y. General merchandise stores sales rose 2.7% (2.5% y/y) after a 5.9% rise. Department store sales increased 19.8% (-10.6% y/y) after gaining 36.2% in May. Building materials & garden store sales eased 0.3% (+17.3% y/y) after strengthening 12.2% in May.
Apparel & accessory store sales strengthened 105.1% in June (-23.2% y/y) after recovering 176.7% in May. These gains followed sharp declines in the prior two months. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rose roughly one-third (-3.5% y/y) following a 79.1% jump. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 37.4% (-12.7% y/y) after a 36.5% May recovery from three straight months of decline. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales improved 26.5% (20.6% y/y) after a 78.0% rise.
Grocery & beverage store sales weakened 1.2% (+12.4% y/y) following a 2.2% May rise. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales rose 3.5% in June (-5.7% y/y) after improving 1.5%.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 7.5 | 18.2 | -14.7 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Excluding Autos | 7.3 | 12.1 | -15.2 | -0.5 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Retail Sales | 6.4 | 17.1 | -12.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Retail Less Autos | 5.9 | 10.2 | -12.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 8.2 | 48.7 | -12.2 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| Food & Beverage Stores | -1.2 | 2.2 | -12.9 | 12.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Gasoline Service Stations | 15.3 | 11.9 | -24.5 | -19.1 | -0.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places | 20.0 | 31.5 | -34.3 | -26.3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
