Global| May 11 2006U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 0.5% rise in US retail sales during April was a bit short of Consensus expectations for a 0.7% gain. It followed an unrevised 0.6% rise the prior month. Despite the disappointment, retail sales during the first four months of this [...]
The 0.5% rise in US retail sales during April was a bit short of Consensus expectations for a 0.7% gain. It followed an unrevised 0.6% rise the prior month. Despite the disappointment, retail sales during the first four months of this year rose at a 10.2% annual rate.
Also disappointing was the 0.7% increase in nonauto sales which followed an unrevised 0.4% March rise. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.9% increase. However, that disappointment must be labeled slight given that year to date nonauto sales surged 11.8% (AR) versus an 8.2% rise during all of last year.
Sales at gasoline stations jumped 4.6% (17.4% y/y) as retail gasoline prices rose 13.1% m/m to an April average of $2.74 per gallon.
During April, nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose just 0.2% (7.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.6% March increase. Year to date nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose at a 10.0% annual rate versus a 6.7% increase during 2005.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers fell 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) and reflected a 0.9% m/m increase unit auto sales to 16.74M.
Sales of discretionary items rose moderately led by a 0.8% increase in general merchandise store sales (5.7% y/y). Apparel store sales rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y) but the prior month's modest decline was revised to a 0.4% gain. Sales of furniture, electronics & appliances rose 0.2% (6.9% y/y) and matched an upwardly revised March up tick.
Building material sales retraced all of an upwardly revised 1.6% (+13.0% y/y) March increase while sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 0.5% (13.3% y/y) following jumps of 2.1% and 3.3% during the prior two months.
| April | Mar | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.5% | 0.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.7% | 0.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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