Global| Aug 29 2006Weekly Chain Store Sales Up, Gasoline Prices Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, chain store sales rose a moderate 0.6% last week, the first w/w gain since July. The increase helped the average sales level in August rise 0.4% above July, [...]
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey, chain store sales rose a moderate 0.6% last week, the first w/w gain since July.
The increase helped the average sales level in August rise 0.4% above July, the first m/m gain in four months. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose a modest 0.1% (-2.4% y/y) in the latest week after several weeks of decline. The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell another eight cents to an average $2.85 (+9.0% y/y). The decline lowered the average this month to $2.95 versus a July average of $2.98. In spot market trading yesterday, regular unleaded gasoline prices fell sharply to $1.77 as Ernesto was downgraded to a tropical storm and moved out of the Gulf of Mexico. Oil prices similarly fell with the spot price of WTI crude down to $70.62 per bbl. (+5.1% y/y) and the price is lower today. Natural gas prices also fell to $6.52/mmbtu (-33.9% y/y) in spot trading.The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 08/26/06 | 08/19/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 471.7 | 469.1 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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