Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounds in January
Summary
- January CFNAI at 0.69, a three-month high, indicates a pickup in U.S. economic growth.
- Two of four components decline slightly, but all four show positive readings.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at 0.69 in January, up from 0.07 in December (-0.15 initially) and 0.51 in November (0.44 initially), according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pointing to a pickup in U.S. economic growth. The January 0.69 reading was the highest level since October but down from 1.24 in January 2021.
The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, slipped to 0.42 in January from 0.46 in December. During the last 10 years, there has been 76% correlation between the change in the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
The Production & Income index recovered to 0.29 in January, a three-month high, from -0.10 in December. The Personal Consumption & Housing index rebounded to 0.23, the highest level since March 2021, from -0.14. In contrast, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours component dipped to 0.14, the lowest level since August, from 0.19. The Sales, Orders & Inventories reading slipped to 0.03 from 0.11.
The CFNAI diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the component series, was at 0.33 in January, slightly down from 0.45 in December and 0.44 in November. Fifty-seven of the 85 component series contributed positively and 28 made negative contributions to the index overall.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of February 22, 2022. January data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published at that time. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.
The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
More Economy in Brief
Global