FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Little Changed in Latest Four Weeks
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Lumber & rubber prices decline.
- Metals costs weaken, notably steel scrap.
- Crude oil prices strengthen.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) improved 0.2% during the four weeks ended August 11. The index has fallen 9.0% y/y as factory sector production slipped 0.4% y/y through June. Factory output has fallen in three of the last four months.
The miscellaneous group price index fell 2.9% (-14.5% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices weakened 14.5% (-39.8% y/y) and the cost of natural rubber declined 4.7% (-9.1% y/y) in four weeks.
Metals group prices eased 0.2% (-6.6% y/y) in the last four weeks as steel scrap prices declined 4.4% (-9.4% y/y) and tin prices fell 5.1% (+13.2% y/y). To the upside, zinc prices rose 4.6% (-31.1% y/y) while lead prices rose 2.5% (-1.4% y/y). Aluminum prices improved 0.5% (-12.4% y/y) while copper scrap prices edged 0.3% higher (5.7% y/y) in four weeks.
Offsetting these declines, prices in the crude oil & benzene group rose 6.6% (-6.4% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 11.1% in four weeks to $82.98 per barrel but fell 8.9% y/y, while the price of the petro-chemical benzene strengthened 13.5% (-14.9% y/y) in four weeks.
Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index slipped 0.5% (-8.9% y/y) over the last four weeks.
Prices in the textile group improved 0.7% during the last four weeks but fell 5.5% y/y. Cotton prices rose 5.8% but weakened 26.0% y/y. The cost of burlap declined 1.6% (-7.7% y/y) in the last four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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