U.S. Retail Sales Surge in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Nonauto sales rise moderately.
- Motor vehicle & building materials drive sales overall.
- Gasoline sales decline despite higher prices.
Total retail sales increased 1.4% (4.6% y/y) during March after an unrevised 0.2% February improvement. January sales were revised to down 1.0% from a 1.2% decline reported last month. The figures are reported by the U.S Census Bureau. Expectations had been for a 1.4% March gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 0.5% last month (3.6% y/y) following a 0.7% February rise, revised from 0.3%. Nonauto sales fell 0.4% in January, revised from down 0.6%. A 0.4% gain had been expected for March.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & food services, rose 0.4% (4.6% y/y) last month after rising 1.3% in February, revised from 1.0%. Sales fell 0.8% in January, revised from down 1.0%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 5.3% (8.8% y/y) last month and followed a 1.6% February decline. The rise compared to a 10.4% increase (11.8% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 3.8% February rise. Spending at gasoline stations weakened 2.5% (-4.3% y/y) after falling 0.8% in February. The decline came as gasoline prices increased 1.0% (NSA, -9.6% y/y) on average during March.
By category, sales of building materials & garden equipment jumped 3.3% (2.6% y/y) in March following declines in each of the prior five months. Sporting goods, hobby & book store sales increased 2.4% (2.7% y/y) in March after falling 0.3% in February. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.8% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% February increase. General merchandise store sales rose 0.6% (3.8% y/y) in March following no change, but within that grouping department store sales weakened 0.3% (-2.5% y/y) following a 1.6% February drop. Clothing & accessory store sales rose 0.4% (5.4% y/y) after modest declines in February & January. Nonstore retail sales edged up 0.1% last month (4.8% y/y) on the heels of a 3.2% strengthening. Working lower, furniture & home furnishings store sales fell 0.7% (+7.7% y/y) after increasing 0.8%.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.7% (7.2% y/y) in March after increasing 2.0% in February. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y), the same as in February.
Restaurant & drinking place sales jumped 1.8% (4.8% y/y) last month after weakening 0.8% in February.
Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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