FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Metals & lumber costs lead gain.
- Crude oil prices trend sideways.
- Textile prices remain soft.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) strengthened 4.0% (-10.0% y/y) during the four weeks ended February 3, continuing the improvement during the prior two periods. The index had been trending sideways since the end of September.
Prices in the metals group strengthened 7.8% (-12.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Zinc prices improved 14.0% in four weeks (-5.8% y/y) while aluminum prices recently rose 11.9% (-16.1% y/y). The cost of scrap copper improved 10.0% in the last four weeks (-5.6% y/y) while steel scrap costs rose 3.1% (-13.8% y/y). Tin prices rose 19.5% (-30.8% y/y). Lead prices weakened 7.0% (-4.6% y/y) in the last four weeks.
The miscellaneous price index rose 3.8% (-12.3% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices strengthened by roughly one-third (-48.3% y/y) while natural rubber prices improved 11.7% (2.0% y/y) in four weeks.
Crude oil & benzene costs increased 3.7% (-4.2% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of crude oil rose 3.0% to $78.24 per barrel in four weeks but fell 11.5% y/y. The price of the petro-chemical benzene gained 14.1% (1.7% y/y) during the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index improved 4.0% in four weeks (-9.9% y/y).
Prices in the textile group rose 0.3% during the last four weeks but fell 7.2% y/y. Cotton prices gained 3.1% but declined 31.7% y/y. The cost of burlap eased 1.7% (-12.7% y/y) in the last four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
